Hydrodynamic model consistent with data at ∼1 m/yr erosion and ∼100 K m3/yr longshore sediment flux. Model&data show higher alongshore sediment flux gradients and erosion rates along northern OBX. Including vortex force, horizontal advection and pressure gradient improves model-data comparison. Larger wave events (with highest 10% of wave height) dominate alongshore sediment flux. Large and small wave events contribute same order of magnitude to shoreline change.