Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations

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• 作者：Joã ; o F. Caldeira^a ; Guilherme V. Moura^b ; ¹ ; ^{gvallemoura@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; ^{guilherme.moura@ufsc.br" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; André ; A.P. Santos^b ; ²
• 关键词：Yield curve ; Forecast combinations ; Economic value of forecasts
• 刊名：Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：August 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：100
• 期：Complete
• 页码：79-98
• 全文大小：2304 K

文摘

An examination of the statistical accuracy and economic value of modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates using forecast combinations is considered. Five alternative methods to combine point forecasts from several univariate and multivariate autoregressive specifications including dynamic factor models, equilibrium term structure models, and forward rate regression models are used. Moreover, a detailed performance evaluation based not only on statistical measures of forecast accuracy, but also on Sharpe ratios of fixed income portfolios is conducted. An empirical application based on a large panel of Brazilian interest rate future contracts with different maturities shows that combined forecasts consistently outperform individual models in several instances, specially when economic criteria are taken into account.