Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia
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- 作者：Daniel Mason-D'Croza ; d.mason-dcroz@cgiar.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Joost Vervoortb ; c ; d ; joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Amanda Palazzoe ; palazzo@iiasa.ac.at" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Shahnila Islama ; shahnila.islam@cgiar.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Steven Lordc ; f ; steven.lord@adelaide.edu.au" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Ariella Helfgottc ; d ; ariella.helfgott@ouce.ox.ac.uk" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Petr Havlí ; ke ; havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Rathana Peoub ; c ; rathana.pvdh@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Marieke Sasseng ; Marieke.Sassen@unep-wcmc.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Marieke Veegerb ; h ; mveeger@uci.ac.cr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Arnout van Soesbergeng ; i ; Arnout.van-Soesbergen@unep-wcmc.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Andrew P. Arnellg ; Andy.Arnell@unep-wcmc.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Benjamin Stuchj ; stuch@cesr.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Aslihan Arslank ; Aslihan.Arslan@fao.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Leslie Lipperl ; Leslie.Lipper@fao.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：Multi-stakeholder scenarios ; Multi-model ensembles ; Climate change ; Agriculture and food security ; Southeast Asia ; Driver analysis
- 刊名：Environmental Modelling & Software
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：September 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：83
- 期：Complete
- 页码：255-270
- 全文大小：2106 K
文摘
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We developed 4 multi-factor, multi-state socio-economic scenarios for Southeast Asia.
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Diverse scenarios provide wide possibility space for testing of robust policies.
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Quantifying scenarios in multiple models is challenging but increases scenario robustness.
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Using multiple model increases the scenario possibility space.