A Monte Carlo approach to the ship-centric Markov decision process for analyzing decisions over converting a containership to LNG power

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• 作者：Austin A. Kana^a ; ^{A.A.Kana@tudelft.nl} ; Brandon M. Harrison^b ; ¹
• 关键词：Decision making ; Emission Control Area ; Markov decision process ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Uncertainty analysis ; LNG
• 刊名：Ocean Engineering
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：15 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：130
• 期：Complete
• 页码：40-48
• 全文大小：631 K
• 卷排序：130

文摘

Propose a model to study the decision to convert to LNG fuel for a container ship. New method applies Monte Carlo simulations to ship-centric Markov decision process. Propose a new metric to define model convergence within this new model. Model includes uncertainties in regulation, economics, and technology development. Studied sensitivities of ECA regulations, fuel supply chain risk, and fuel price.