Comparing Federal Reserve, Blue Chip, and time series forecasts of US output growth

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• 作者：Hamid Baghestani ^{baghesta@msn.com} ; Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul ; ^{babufoul@aus.edu}
• 关键词：E22 ; E32 ; R31 ; R32
• 刊名：Journal of Economics and Business
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January-February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：89
• 期：Complete
• 页码：47-56
• 全文大小：450 K
• 卷排序：89

文摘

Private forecasts contain useful information not included in Greenbook forecasts. The time-series forecasts are derived from a univariate AR model and a VAR model. The VAR model includes both residential investment growth and consumer sentiment. Greenbook, private, and VAR forecasts are more informative than the AR forecasts. VAR forecasts contain information not included in Greenbook and private forecasts.