Coulomb stress evolution over the past 200 years and seismic hazard along the Xianshuihe fault zone of Sichuan, China
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- 作者：Zhigang Shaoa ; Jing Xub ; xjinggis@163.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Hongsheng Mac ; Langping Zhanga
- 关键词：The Xianshuihe fault zone ; Coulomb stress evolution ; Friction constitutive law ; Future earthquake probability ; Seismic hazard
- 刊名：Tectonophysics
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：22 February 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：670
- 期：Complete
- 页码：48-65
- 全文大小：3536 K
文摘
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We simulate 200 years Coulomb stress evolution due to co, post, and interseismic effects.
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M > 6.7 earthquakes mostly occurred in the Coulomb stress enhancement region.
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Event probability till 2050 was calculated through a rate- and state-dependent model.
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Probability was estimated by stress step and seismicity rate obtained in two ways.
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Segments with high Coulomb stress or earthquake probability were proposed.