Regular biennial cycles in epidemics caused by parametric resonance

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• 作者：Shiyang Chen ^{shychen@umich.edu} ; Bogdan Epureanu ; ^{epureanu@umich.edu}
• 关键词：Childhood infectious diseases ; SIR model ; Method of multiple scales
• 刊名：Journal of Theoretical Biology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：21 February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：415
• 期：Complete
• 页码：137-144
• 全文大小：886 K
• 卷排序：415

文摘

It is proposed that large amplitude biennial cycles in epidemiology can be caused by parametric resonance. An SIR model is solved semi-analytically using method of multiple scales (MMS). The boundary between the resonance region and the non-resonance region in the parameter space is obtained. The effects of different parameters on the triggering of parametric resonance are studied.