People’s conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise)
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- 作者：Fintan Costelloa ; fintan.costello@ucd.ie" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Paul Wattsb
- 关键词：Probability ; Conditional probability ; Rationality ; Biases ; Heuristics
- 刊名：Cognitive Psychology
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：September 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：89
- 期：Complete
- 页码：106-133
- 全文大小：1489 K
文摘
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Presents a model of conditional probability judgment that follows probability theory.
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Describes how systematic effects (biases) are caused by random noise in the model.
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Explains observed biases in people’s probability judgment in terms of these effects.
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Presents two experiments strongly confirming the predictions of this model.