Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand
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- 作者：Kushan C. Pereraa ; ; Andrew W. Westerna ; ; Biju Georgeb ; Bandara Nawarathnac
- 关键词：Irrigation demand ; Time series ; Multivariate ; ARMAX ; Exogenous variables ; Forecasting
- 刊名：Journal of Hydrology
- 出版年：2015
- 出版时间：December 2015
- 年：2015
- 卷：531
- 期：part_P3
- 页码：1003-1019
- 全文大小：6315 K
文摘
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A multivariate time series short-term irrigation demand forecast model is developed.
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Real-time irrigation delivery system data are used to capture recent behaviour.
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An atmospheric water supply index captures rainfall and evaporative demand effects.
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The model is applied to five command areas in Northern Victoria, Australia.
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Cross-validation NSE ranged over 0.98–0.78 for forecast lead times of up to 5 days.