A Hybrid Scenario Planning Methodology for Interactive Digital Media
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- 作者：Ravi S. SharmaAuthor Vitae ; Yi YangAuthor Vitae
- 刊名：Long Range Planning
- 出版年：2015
- 出版时间：December 2015
- 年：2015
- 卷：48
- 期：6
- 页码：412-429
- 全文大小：2360 K
文摘
In this article, we present a scenario planning approach that is a hybrid of three main schools of thought. We propose such an approach in order to develop scenarios for a contemporary, technology-driven and fast-moving industry such as Interactive Digital Media. Our approach, while essentially qualitative in nature, nevertheless draws from the rigors of quantitative methods in identifying and then tracking the significant Dimensions of Analysis that impact the industry. The capture and analysis of real-time events was automated by an off-the-shelf web crawler with analytic functions, thus making our approach scalable over a larger scope and for longer periods of time. A morphological technique using Multidimensional Scaling isolated strands within the events leading to the identification of trends. This was followed by the mapping of strands to three emergent themes — ownership, distribution and innovation — which were used in an expert construction exercise to formulate plausible scenarios. We suggest that the approach we describe is particularly applicable for dynamic scenario planning that requires revisiting key assumptions and market conditions on a regular basis. We conclude that the ability to develop strategic narratives is the overriding benefit of scenario planning rather than the purported ability to predict the future.