From stakeholders narratives to modelling plausible future agricultural systems. Integrated assessment of scenarios for Camargue, Southern France

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• 作者：Sylvestre Delmotte^a ; ^{delmotte@supagro.inra.fr} ; Vincent Couderc^a ; Jean-Claude Mouret^a ; Santiago Lopez-Ridaura^a ; ^b ; Jean-Marc Barbier^a ; Laure Hossard^a
• 关键词：Participatory approach ; Multi-criteria assessment ; Bio-economic model ; Climate change ; Greenhouse gas emissions
• 刊名：European Journal of Agronomy
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：82
• 期：part_PB
• 页码：292-307
• 全文大小：1925 K
• 卷排序：82

文摘

Participatory development of narrative scenarios and bio-economic models are used. Main drivers of change are economic conditions for rice and climate change. Simulated rice acreages range between 6000 and 23,000 ha, depending on scenario. Gross margin and food production are the most impacted socio-economic indicators. GHG emissions and water consumption are the most impacted environmental indicators.