The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from trade

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• 作者：Nobuhiro Hosoe ; ^{nhosoe@grips.ac.jp" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Q17 ; Q18 ; D58
• 刊名：Journal of Asian Economics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：43
• 期：Complete
• 页码：27-36
• 全文大小：538 K

文摘

National food security is one of the main justifications for opposition to agricultural trade liberalization in Japan. Opponents of liberalization argue that because food crop production is subject to high variability, over-reliance on imports would be risky. To assess the risks to Japan with and without trade liberalization, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of productivity shocks within a computable general equilibrium model for the four crops of greatest significance in the Japanese diet – rice, wheat, maize, and oilseed. Our results indicate that productivity shocks for rice and maize have a substantial effect on welfare. Liberalizing trade for these crops would both raise expected welfare and reduce welfare fluctuations. This double dividend was forecast even when we limited the simulation to cases of extremely poor crop yields in Japan's major source countries.