The value and skill of seasonal forecasts for water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River basin, southern Arizona

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• 作者：Eylon Shamir ^{EShamir@hrcwater.org}
• 关键词：Seasonal forecasts ; Adaptive water resources management ; Santa Cruz River ; CFS
• 刊名：Journal of Arid Environments
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：137
• 期：Complete
• 页码：35-45
• 全文大小：2623 K
• 卷排序：137

文摘

Seasonal forecasts can benefit water resources management and southern Arizona. Only extreme ENSO conditions have forecasting skill for winter and summer rainfall. CFS forecast skill extends up to four months lead-time during the winter. CFS forecast skill of summer rain was found only for July. Adaptive management requires considerations of large uncertainties in the forecasts.