Probabilistic exposure model was used to estimate antimicrobial resistance gene transfer in the human gut. Acid resistance and kinetic behaviour of E. coli survival were analysed in gastric pH conditions. Simulation results suggest that 22–33% of commensal E. coli can survive under gastric pH conditions of Koreans. Estimated mean tet(A) transfer rate by commensal E. coli was 1.68 × 10–4–8.15 × 10–4 log CFU/mL/h.