Novel grey prediction model with nonlinear optimized time response method for forecasting of electricity consumption in China

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• 作者：Ning Xu^a ; ^{nuaa_xuning@163.com} ; ^{xuning@nuaa.edu.cn} ; Yaoguo Dang^b ; Yande Gong^a
• 关键词：Grey prediction model ; Particle swarm optimization ; Initial value ; Electricity consumption
• 刊名：Energy
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：1 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：118
• 期：Complete
• 页码：473-480
• 全文大小：864 K
• 卷排序：118

文摘

A novel grey model is developed for electricity consumption forecasting. Relationship of initial value and time input is investigated. The time response function is improved by a heuristic optimization. The new approach adapts to the time-varying characteristic of raw data. The proposed model outperforms the results of other existing models.