Modelling the Impacts on Population Caused by Fixed Link Projects

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• 作者：Marí ; a Dí ; ez Gutié ; rrez^a ; ^{maria.diez@ntnu.no" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Stig Nyland Andersen^a ; ^b ; Ø ; yvind Lervik Nilsen^a ; ^c ; Trude Tø ; rset^a
• 关键词：Fixed link ; population forecast ; demographic projection ; transport model ; accessibility change
• 刊名：Transportation Research Procedia
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：14
• 期：Complete
• 页码：4468-4477
• 全文大小：239 K

文摘

Fixed links are bridges or tunnels that join areas previously separated by geographic barriers without a permanent connection. Fixed links can cause important travel time savings, which might be an incentive for population growth in the affected areas. Traditional population forecasts do not include potential changes caused by infrastructure investments, and this might cause misrepresentation of input to travel forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of whether the mismatches between the forecasts and real population numbers can be explained by the impacts of a new infrastructure.

For this purpose, we observe ten fixed links on the western coast of Norway. Different linear regression models with several independent variables in different time periods are estimated for two situations; after the opening of the fixed links, and after the toll removal on the fixed link. The results show that the differences between forecast and real population after the opening of the fixed link are not related to any of the observed explanatory variables. On the other hand, the mismatches after the toll removal are associated with the travel time and cost reductions between the main activity centre in the affected municipality and the closest urban district. In addition, the differences in housing prices is also a significant variable, correlated to the number of total jobs per individual. This reflects the differences among the affected and the newly reachable areas in size and labour opportunities.