Outline of principles for building scenarios - Transition toward more sustainable energy systems

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• 作者：Ziyi Wang ; Ronald Wennersten ; Qie Sun ; ^{qie@sdu.edu.cn}
• 关键词：Energy system ; Scenarios ; Energy transition ; Technology development ; Evolutionary forecasting
• 刊名：Applied Energy
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：1 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：185
• 期：part_P2
• 页码：1890-1898
• 全文大小：318 K
• 卷排序：185

文摘

Problems in existing energy systems regarding sustainability is analyzed. A productive definition of primary energy sources is defined for developing scenarios for transitions of energy systems. Thermodynamics-based objective and subjective value-based criteria are developed to evaluate technology development. A new approach, i.e. evolutionary forecasting scenario, is proposed to create roadmaps toward sustainable energy systems. A conceptual agent-based model is adopted to illustrate the proposed approach.