The hypocenters of VT events in 2010 occur in two clusters at of 2.5 to 5 km and less than 1.5 km depths below the summit. An aseismic zone was detected at 1.5-2.5 km depth, consistent with studies of previous eruptions, and indicating that this is a robust feature of Merapi's subsurface structure. Our analysis suggests that the aseismic zone is a poorly consolidated layer of altered material within the volcano. Deep VT events occurred mainly before 17 October 2010; subsequent to that time shallow activity strongly increased. The deep seismic activity is interpreted as associated with the enlargement of a narrow conduit by an unusually large volume of rapidly ascending magma. The shallow seismicity is interpreted as recording the final magma ascent and the rupture of a summit-dome plug, which triggered the eruption on 26 October 2010.
Hindsight forecasting of the occurrence time of the eruption is performed by applying the Material Failure Forecast Method (FFM) using cumulative Real-time Seismic Amplitude (RSAM) calculated both from raw records and on signals classified according to their dominant frequency. Stable estimates of eruption time with errors as small as ¡À 4 h are obtained within a 6 day lapse time before the eruption. This approach could therefore be useful to support decision making in the case of future large explosive episodes at Merapi.