Distributed investment decisions and forecasting errors: An analysis based on a multi-agent simulation model

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• 作者：Stephan Leitner ; ^a ; ^{stephan.leitner@aau.at} ; Alexandra Rausch^a ; ^{alexandra.rausch@aau.at} ; Doris A. Behrens^b ; ^{BehrensD1@cardiff.ac.uk}
• 关键词：Multi-agent simulation ; Distributed decision making ; Overconfidence ; Coordination ; Forecasting errors
• 刊名：European Journal of Operational Research
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：1 April 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：258
• 期：1
• 页码：279-294
• 全文大小：2464 K
• 卷排序：258

文摘

Quantification of inefficiencies in budget allocation due to systematic/nonsystematic errors. Novel (outcome directed) view on overconfidence. Possible reduction of inefficiencies in budget allocation due to overconfident forecasts. Higher proportion of inefficiency in the mechanism because of second-stage errors. Policy advice how to deal with systematic/non-systematic errors.