Pre-disaster investment decisions for strengthening a highway network

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• 作者：Srinivas Peeta ; F. Sibel Salman ; Dilek Gunnec ; Kannan Viswanath
• 关键词：Networks ; Random link failures ; Retrofitting highways ; Earthquake mitigation ; Two-stage stochastic program ; Decision-dependent probability distribution
• 刊名：Computers and Operations Research
• 出版年：2010
• 出版时间：October 2010
• 年：2010
• 卷：37
• 期：10
• 页码：1708-1719
• 全文大小：551 K

文摘

We address a pre-disaster planning problem that seeks to strengthen a highway network whose links are subject to random failures due to a disaster. Each link may be either operational or non-functional after the disaster. The link failure probabilities are assumed to be known a priori, and investment decreases the likelihood of failure. The planning problem seeks connectivity for first responders between various origin–destination (O–D) pairs and hence focuses on uncapacitated road conditions. The decision-maker's goal is to select the links to invest in under a limited budget with the objective of maximizing the post-disaster connectivity and minimizing traversal costs between the origin and destination nodes. The problem is modeled as a two-stage stochastic program in which the investment decisions in the first stage alter the survival probabilities of the corresponding links. We restructure the objective function into a monotonic non-increasing multilinear function and show that using the first order terms of this function leads to a knapsack problem whose solution is a local optimum to the original problem. Numerical experiments on real-world data related to strengthening Istanbul's urban highway system against earthquake risk illustrate the tractability of the method and provide practical insights for decision-makers.