Confidence in soil carbon predictions undermined by the uncertainties in observations and model parameterisation
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- 作者：Zhongkui Luoa ; zhongkui.luo@csiro.au" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; zhongkui.luo@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Enli Wanga ; Enli.Wang@csiro.au" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Quanxi Shaob ; Mark K. Conyersc ; De Li Liuc
- 关键词：Carbon cycle ; Carbon sequestration ; Measurement uncertainty ; Model optimisation ; Prediction uncertainty
- 刊名：Environmental Modelling & Software
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：June 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：80
- 期：Complete
- 页码：26-32
- 全文大小：1098 K
文摘
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We simulate observed soil carbon dynamics using different calibration strategies.
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Different model initialisation and/or parameterisation cause divergent predictions.
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Ignoring uncertainty in observations results in biased predictions.
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Robust prediction needs accurate observations and constrained parameter space.