Potential Impacts of climate change on species richness in mountain forests--an ecological risk assessment
详细信息 查看全文
- 作者：Kienast ; Felix ; Wildi ; Otto ; Brzeziecki ; Bogdan
- 关键词：Spatially explicit vegetation model ; GIS ; Switzerland ; nature reserve areas ; conceptual model
- 刊名：Biological Conservation
- 出版年：1998
- 出版时间：March, 1998
- 年：1998
- 卷：83
- 期：3
- 页码：291-305
- 全文大小：1.65 M
文摘
In this ecological risk assessment we evaluated potential climate-induced vegetation changes in mountain forests of Central Europe and possible impacts on species richness. The analysis was performed on all 1 km grid points of the Swiss forest inventory (c. 11,500 points) as well as on two subsets representing the forested points within the geographical limits of two inventories of legally protected reserve areas. The core of the approach is (a) a conceptual model of the movement of climatic ranges along altitudinal gradients as a result of global warming and (b) a spatially explicit forest community simulator that predicts a potential natural vegetation unit for any given 1 km grid point of the Swiss forest inventory for both current climate and for altered climate regimes. The model is derived from empirical data featuring the relationships between quasi-natural vegetation types and measured site variables. Species richness for any modelled forest community is estimated on the basis of phytosociological relevés.