Dry/wet variations in the eastern Tien Shan (China) since AD 1725 based on Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) tree rings

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• 作者：Feng Chen ; ^{feng653@163.com} ; Huaming Shang ; Yujiang Yuan
• 关键词：Dendroclimatology ; Northern Xinjiang ; SPEI reconstruction ; Drought events ; Natural forcings
• 刊名：Dendrochronologia
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：40
• 期：Complete
• 页码：110-116
• 全文大小：2448 K
• 卷排序：40

文摘

Cores of Schrenk spruce from seven sites of eastern Tien Shan were used to develop a regional tree-ring chronology to extend the climate record. We developed an August–July Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) reconstruction that spans AD 1725–2013 based on the regional tree-ring chronology. The reconstruction model accounts for 45.3% of the SPEI variance from 1959 to 2013. The SPEI reconstruction agrees reasonably well with the dry and wet periods previously estimated from tree rings in northern Xinjiang. The correlation analysis revealed that temperature plays an important role in regional drought variability, and some extreme wet years also coincide with the volcanic eruptions.