Evaluation of the Current State of Mechanistic Aquatic Biogeochemical Modeling: Citation Analysis and Future Perspectives
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- 作者：George B. Arhonditsis ; Barbara A. Adams-VanHarn ; Leah Nielsen ; Craig A. Stow ; Kenneth H. Reckhow
- 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
- 出版年：2006
- 出版时间：November 1, 2006
- 年：2006
- 卷：40
- 期：21
- 页码：6547 - 6554
- 全文大小：377K
- 年卷期：v.40,no.21(November 1, 2006)
- ISSN：1520-5851
文摘
We examined the factors that determine the citations of153 mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling paperspublished from 1990 to 2002. Our analysis providesoverwhelming evidence that ocean modeling is a dynamicarea of the current modeling practice. Models developedto gain insight into the ocean carbon cycle/marinebiogeochemistry are most highly cited, the producedknowledge is exported to other cognitive disciplines, andoceanic modelers are less reluctant to embrace technicaladvances (e.g., assimilation schemes) and more criticallyincrease model complexity. Contrary to our predictions, modelapplication for environmental management issues on alocal scale seems to have languished; the pertinent paperscomprise a smaller portion of the published modelingliterature and receive lower citations. Given the criticalplanning information that these models aim to provide, wehypothesize that the latter finding probably stems fromconceptual weaknesses, methodological omissions, and anevident lack of haste from modelers to adopt new ideasin their repertoire when addressing environmentalmanagement issues. We also highlight the lack of significantassociation between citation frequency and modelcomplexity, model performance, implementation of conventional methodological steps during model development(e.g., validation, sensitivity analysis), number of authors,and country of affiliation. While these results cast doubt onthe rationale of the current modeling practice, the factthat the Fasham et al. (1990) paper has received over 400citations probably dictates what should be done fromthe modeling community to meet the practical need forattractive and powerful modeling tools.