The Recent and Future Health Burden of Air Pollution Apportioned Across U.S. Sectors
详细信息 查看全文
- 作者：Neal Fann ; Charles M. Fulcher ; Kirk Baker
- 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T)
- 出版年：2013
- 出版时间：April 16, 2013
- 年：2013
- 卷：47
- 期：8
- 页码：3580-3589
- 全文大小：443K
- 年卷期：v.47,no.8(April 16, 2013)
- ISSN：1520-5851
文摘
Recent risk assessments have characterized the overall burden of recent PM2.5 and ozone levels on public health, but generally not the variability of these impacts over time or by sector. Using photochemical source apportionment modeling and a health impact function, we attribute PM2.5 and ozone air quality levels, population exposure and health burden to 23 industrial point, area, mobile and international emission sectors in the Continental U.S. in 2005 and 2016. Our modeled policy scenarios account for a suite of emission control requirements affecting many of these sectors. Between these two years, the number of PM2.5 and ozone-related deaths attributable to power plants and mobile sources falls from about 68鈥?00 (90% confidence interval from 48鈥?00 to 87鈥?00) to about 36鈥?00 (90% confidence intervals from 26鈥?00 to 47鈥?00). Area source mortality risk grows slightly between 2005 and 2016, due largely to population growth. Uncertainties relating to the timing and magnitude of the emission reductions may affect the size of these estimates. The detailed sector-level estimates of the size and distribution of mortality and morbidity risk suggest that the air pollution mortality burden has fallen over time but that many sectors continue to pose a substantial risk to human health.