Public Health, Climate, and Economic Impacts of Desulfurizing Jet Fuel

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• 作者：Steven R. H. Barrett ; Steve H. L. Yim ; Christopher K. Gilmore ; Lee T. Murray ; Stephen R. Kuhn ; Amos P. K. Tai ; Robert M. Yantosca ; Daewon W. Byun ; Fong Ngan ; Xiangshang Li ; Jonathan I. Levy ; Akshay Ashok ; Jamin Koo ; Hsin Min Wong ; Olivier Dessens ; Sathya Balasubramanian ; Gregg G. Fleming ; Matthew N. Pearlson ; Christoph Wollersheim ; Robert Malina ; Saravanan Arunachalam ; Francis S. Binkowski ; Eric M. Leibensperger ; Daniel J. Jacob ; James I. Hileman ; Ian A. Waitz
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T)
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：April 17, 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：46
• 期：8
• 页码：4275-4282
• 全文大小：334K
• 年卷期：v.46,no.8(April 17, 2012)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

In jurisdictions including the US and the EU ground transportation and marine fuels have recently been required to contain lower concentrations of sulfur, which has resulted in reduced atmospheric SO_x emissions. In contrast, the maximum sulfur content of aviation fuel has remained unchanged at 3000 ppm (although sulfur levels average 600 ppm in practice). We assess the costs and benefits of a potential ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) jet fuel standard (鈥淯LSJ鈥?. We estimate that global implementation of ULSJ will cost US$1鈥?bn per year and prevent 900鈥?000 air quality-related premature mortalities per year. Radiative forcing associated with reduction in atmospheric sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium loading is estimated at +3.4 mW/m² (equivalent to about 1/10th of the warming due to CO₂ emissions from aviation) and ULSJ increases life cycle CO₂ emissions by approximately 2%. The public health benefits are dominated by the reduction in cruise SO_x emissions, so a key uncertainty is the atmospheric modeling of vertical transport of pollution from cruise altitudes to the ground. Comparisons of modeled and measured vertical profiles of CO, PAN, O₃, and ⁷Be indicate that this uncertainty is low relative to uncertainties regarding the value of statistical life and the toxicity of fine particulate matter.