Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone Nonattainment over the Continental United States
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- 作者：Amir Hakami ; John H. Seinfeld ; Tianfeng Chai ; Youhua Tang ; Gregory R. Carmichael ; and Adrian Sandu
- 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
- 出版年：2006
- 出版时间：June 15, 2006
- 年：2006
- 卷：40
- 期：12
- 页码：3855 - 3864
- 全文大小：632K
- 年卷期：v.40,no.12(June 15, 2006)
- ISSN：1520-5851
文摘
An application of the adjoint method in air qualitymanagement is demonstrated. We use a continental scalechemical transport model (STEM) to calculate thesensitivities of a nationwide U.S. ozone national ambientair quality standard (NAAQS) nonattainment metric toprecursor emissions for the period July 1 to August 15,2004. The model shows low bias and error (-4 and 24%,respectively), particularly for areas with high ozoneconcentrations. The nonattainment metric accounts forboth 1-h and 8-h ozone standards, but is dominated by the8-h exceedances (97% of the combined metric). Largestvalues of sensitivities are found to be with respect to emissionsin the south and southeast U.S., Ohio River Valley, andCalifornia. When nonattainment sensitivities are integratedover the entire U.S., NOx emissions account for thelargest contribution (62% of the total), followed by biogenicand anthropogenic VOCs (24% and 14%, respectively).For NOx emissions, point/area and mobile sources accountfor 54% and 46% of the total sensitivities, respectively.We also provide a state-by-state comparison for thenonattainment magnitude, nonattainment sensitivity, andemission magnitudes to explore the influence of interstatetransport of ozone and its precursors, and policyimplications of the results. Our analysis of the nationwideozone nonattainment metric suggests that simple cap-and-trade programs may prove inadequate in achievingsought-after air quality objectives.