Changing Trends in Sulfur Emissions in Asia: Implications for Acid Deposition, Air Pollution, and Climate
文摘
In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO2emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr-1 by 2020.Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000,we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow onlyto 40-45 Tg yr-1 by 2020. The main reason for this lowerestimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. Thedecline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slow-down of the Chinese economy, and the closure of smalland inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect ofthe reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been areduction in acid deposition not only in China but also inJapan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reducehealth problems. SO2 emission reductions may increaseglobal warming, but this warming effect could be partiallyoffset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon.How SO2 emissions in the region change in the comingdecades will depend on many competing factors (economicgrowth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuationof current trends would result in sulfur emissions lowerthan any IPCC forecasts.