Changing Trends in Sulfur Emissions in Asia: Implications for Acid Deposition, Air Pollution, and Climate

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• 作者：Gregory R. Carmichael ; David G. Streets ; Giuseppe Calori ; Markus Amann ; Mark Z. Jacobson ; James Hansen ; and Hiromasa Ueda
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2002
• 出版时间：November 15, 2002
• 年：2002
• 卷：36
• 期：22
• 页码：4707 - 4713
• 全文大小：408K
• 年卷期：v.36,no.22(November 15, 2002)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO₂emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr^-1 by 2020.Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000,we calculate that SO₂ emissions in Asia might grow onlyto 40-45 Tg yr^-1 by 2020. The main reason for this lowerestimate is a decline of SO₂ emissions from 1995 to 2000in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO₂. Thedecline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slow-down of the Chinese economy, and the closure of smalland inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect ofthe reduction in SO₂ emissions in China has been areduction in acid deposition not only in China but also inJapan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reducehealth problems. SO₂ emission reductions may increaseglobal warming, but this warming effect could be partiallyoffset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon.How SO₂ emissions in the region change in the comingdecades will depend on many competing factors (economicgrowth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuationof current trends would result in sulfur emissions lowerthan any IPCC forecasts.