Decision Support Framework for Developing Regional Energy Strategies

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Douglas L. Bessette ; Joseph Arvai ; Victoria Campbell-Arvai
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：February 4, 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：48
• 期：3
• 页码：1401-1408
• 全文大小：268K
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

In an effort to reduce 鈥渃arbon pollution鈥?as well as prepare the U.S. for the impacts of climate change, President Obama鈥檚 2013 Climate Action Plan calls for changes to be made to the nation鈥檚 energy system. In addition to focusing on alternative portfolios of different fuels and power-generation technologies, researchers and advisory panels have urged that changes to the nation鈥檚 energy system be based on a decision-making framework that incorporates stakeholders and accounts for real-world resource, supply, and demand constraints. To date, research and development on such a framework have proven elusive. The research reported here describes the development and test of a potential decision support framework that combines elements from structured decision-making (SDM) with portfolio analysis, methods that have been used independently to elicit preferences in complex decision contexts. This hybrid framework aimed to (1) provide necessary background information to users regarding the development of coupled climate-energy strategies; (2) account for users鈥?values and objectives; (3) allow for the construction of bespoke energy portfolios bounded by real-world supply and demand constraints; and (4) provide a more rigorous basis for addressing trade-offs. Results show that this framework was user-friendly, led to significant increases in users鈥?knowledge about energy systems and, importantly, led to more internally consistent decisions. For these reasons, this framework may serve as a suitable template for supporting decisions about energy transitions in the United States and abroad.