The Ozone鈥揅limate Penalty: Past, Present, and Future

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• 作者：D. J. Rasmussen ; Jianlin Hu ; Abdullah Mahmud ; Michael J. Kleeman
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：December 17, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：47
• 期：24
• 页码：14258-14266
• 全文大小：533K
• 年卷期：v.47,no.24(December 17, 2013)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

Climate change is expected to increase global mean temperatures leading to higher tropospheric ozone (O₃) concentrations in already polluted regions, potentially eroding the benefits of expensive emission controls. The magnitude of the 鈥淥₃鈥揷limate penalty鈥?has generally decreased over the past three decades, which makes future predictions for climate impacts on air quality uncertain. Researchers attribute historical reductions in the O₃鈥揷limate penalty to reductions in NO_x emissions but have so far not extended this theory into a quantitative prediction for future effects. Here, we show that a three-dimensional air quality model can be used to map the behavior of the O₃鈥揷limate penalty under varying NO_x and VOC emissions in both NO_x-limited and NO_x-saturated conditions in Central and Southern California, respectively. Simulations suggest that the planned emissions control program for O₃ precursors will not diminish the O₃鈥揷limate penalty to zero as some observational studies might imply. The results further demonstrate that in a NO_x-limited air basin, NO_x control strategies alone are sufficient to both decrease the O₃鈥揷limate penalty and mitigate O₃ pollution, while in a NO_x-saturated air basin, a modified emissions control plan that carefully chooses reductions in both NO_x and VOC emissions may be necessary to eliminate the O₃鈥揷limate penalty while simultaneously reducing base case O₃ concentrations to desired levels. Additional modeling is needed to determine the behavior of the O₃鈥揷limate penalty as NO_x and VOC emissions evolve in other regions.