How Much Do Electric Drive Vehicles Matter to Future U.S. Emissions?

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• 作者：Samaneh Babaee ; Ajay S. Nagpure ; Joseph F. DeCarolis
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：February 4, 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：48
• 期：3
• 页码：1382-1390
• 全文大小：431K
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles鈥攌nown collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)鈥攎ay represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO₂, SO₂, and NO_X emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO₂ policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.