Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis of Life Cycle Assessment for Algal Biofuel Production

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• 作者：Deborah L. Sills ; Vidia Paramita ; Michael J. Franke ; Michael C. Johnson ; Tal M. Akabas ; Charles H. Greene ; Jefferson W. Tester
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T)
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：January 15, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：47
• 期：2
• 页码：687-694
• 全文大小：430K
• 年卷期：v.47,no.2(January 15, 2013)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

As a result of algae鈥檚 promise as a renewable energy feedstock, numerous studies have used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to quantify the environmental performance of algal biofuels, yet there is no consensus of results among them. Our work, motivated by the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in previous studies, uses a Monte Carlo approach to estimate ranges of expected values of LCA metrics by incorporating parameter variability with empirically specified distribution functions. Results show that large uncertainties exist at virtually all steps of the biofuel production process. Although our findings agree with a number of earlier studies on matters such as the need for wet lipid extraction, nutrients recovered from waste streams, and high energy coproducts, the ranges of reported LCA metrics show that uncertainty analysis is crucial for developing technologies, such as algal biofuels. In addition, the ranges of energy return on (energy) invested (EROI) values resulting from our analysis help explain the high variability in EROI values from earlier studies. Reporting results from LCA models as ranges, and not single values, will more reliably inform industry and policy makers on expected energetic and environmental performance of biofuels produced from microalgae.