Scientists鈥?Views about Attribution of Global Warming

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• 作者：Bart Verheggen ; Bart Strengers ; John Cook ; Rob van Dorland ; Kees Vringer ; Jeroen Peters ; Hans Visser ; Leo Meyer
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：August 19, 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：48
• 期：16
• 页码：8963-8971
• 全文大小：466K
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents鈥?quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)鈥攑roviding a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution鈥攎ay have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents鈥?views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.