Chinese Rice Production Area Adaptations to Climate Changes, 1949鈥?010

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• 作者：Zhengguo Li ; Zhenhuan Liu ; Weston Anderson ; Peng Yang ; Wenbin Wu ; Huajun Tang ; Liangzhi You
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：February 17, 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：49
• 期：4
• 页码：2032-2037
• 全文大小：334K
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

Climate change has great impact on cropping system. Understanding how the rice production system has historically responded to external forces, both natural and anthropogenic, will provide critical insights into how the system is likely to respond in the future. The observed historic rice movement provides insights into the capability of the rice production system to adapt to climate changes. Using province-level rice production data and historic climate records, here we show that the centroid of Chinese rice production shifted northeastward over 370km (2.98掳N in latitude and 1.88掳E in longitude) from 1949 to 2010. Using a linear regression model, we examined the driving factors, in particular climate, behind such rice production movement. While the major driving forces of the rice relocation are such social economic factors as urbanization, irrigation investment, and agricultural or land use policy changes, climate plays a significant role as well. We found that temperature has been a significant and coherent influence on moving the rice center in China and precipitation has had a significant but less spatially coherent influence.