Discrete Event Simulation for Exploring Strategies: An Urban Water Management Case

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• 作者：Dong-Bin Huang ; Roland W. Scholz ; Willi Gujer ; Derek E. Chitwood ; Peter Loukopoulos ; Roland Schertenleib ; Hansruedi Siegrist
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2007
• 出版时间：February 1, 2007
• 年：2007
• 卷：41
• 期：3
• 页码：915 - 921
• 全文大小：488K
• 年卷期：v.41,no.3(February 1, 2007)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

This paper presents a model structure aimed at offeringan overview of the various elements of a strategy and exploringtheir multidimensional effects through time in an efficientway. It treats a strategy as a set of discrete eventsplanned to achieve a certain strategic goal and developsa new form of causal networks as an interfacingcomponent between decision makers and environmentmodels, e.g., life cycle inventory and material flow models.The causal network receives a strategic plan as input ina discrete manner and then outputs the updated parametersets to the subsequent environmental models. Accordingly,the potential dynamic evolution of environmental systemscaused by various strategies can be stepwise simulated. Itenables a way to incorporate discontinuous change inmodels for environmental strategy analysis, and enhancesthe interpretability and extendibility of a complex modelby its cellular constructs. It is exemplified using an urbanwater management case in Kunming, a major city inSouthwest China. By utilizing the presented method, thecase study modeled the cross-scale interdependencies ofthe urban drainage system and regional water balancesystems, and evaluated the effectiveness of various strategiesfor improving the situation of Dianchi Lake.