Consequence of Climate Mitigation on the Risk of Hunger

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• 作者：Tomoko Hasegawa ; Shinichiro Fujimori ; Yonghee Shin ; Akemi Tanaka ; Kiyoshi Takahashi ; Toshihiko Masui
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：June 16, 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：49
• 期：12
• 页码：7245-7253
• 全文大小：342K
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 掳C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 掳C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.