Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing

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• 作者：Karin van der Wiel ; Sarah B. Kapnick ; Gabriel A. Vecchi
• 刊名：Climatic Change
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：140
• 期：3-4
• 页码：649-658
• 全文大小：1646KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1480
• 卷排序：140

文摘

Climate change has been shown to impact the mean climate state and climate extremes. Though climate extremes have the potential to disrupt society, extreme conditions are rare by definition. In contrast, mild weather occurs frequently and many human activities are built around it. We provide a global analysis of mild weather based on simple criteria and explore changes in response to radiative forcing. We find a slight global mean decrease in the annual number of mild days projected both in the near future (−4 days per year, 2016–2035) and at the end of this century (−10 days per year, 2081–2100). Projected seasonal and regional redistributions of mild days are substantially greater. These changes are larger than the interannual variability of mild weather caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Finally, we show an observed global decrease in the recent past, and that observed regional changes in mild weather resemble projections.