Climate change projections for Tamil Nadu, India: deriving high-resolution climate data by a downscaling approach using PRECIS
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- 作者：Prasanta Kumar Bal ; A. Ramachandran ; R. Geetha…
- 刊名：Theoretical and Applied Climatology
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：February 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：123
- 期：3-4
- 页码：523-535
- 全文大小：2,501 KB
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A. Ramachandran (1)
R. Geetha (1) (2)
B. Bhaskaran (3)
P. Thirumurugan (1)
J. Indumathi (2)
N. Jayanthi (1)
1. Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation Research, Anna University, Chennai, 600025, India
2. Department of Information Science and Technology, Anna University, Chennai, 600025, Tamil Nadu, India
3. Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe, Middlesex, UK - 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
- 刊物主题：Earth sciences
Meteorology and Climatology
Atmospheric Protection, Air Quality Control and Air Pollution
Climate Change
Waste Water Technology, Water Pollution Control, Water Management and Aquatic Pollution - 出版者：Springer Wien
- ISSN：1434-4483
文摘
In this paper, we present regional climate change projections for the Tamil Nadu state of India, simulated by the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model. The model is run at 25 km horizontal resolution driven by lateral boundary conditions generated by a perturbed physical ensemble of 17 simulations produced by a version of Hadley Centre coupled climate model, known as HadCM3Q under A1B scenario. The large scale features of these 17 simulations were evaluated for the target region to choose lateral boundary conditions from six members that represent a range of climate variations over the study region. The regional climate, known as PRECIS, was then run 130 years from 1970. The analyses primarily focus on maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall over the region. For the Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projections of maximum temperature show an increase of 1.0, 2.2 and 3.1 °C for the periods 2020s (2005–2035), 2050s (2035–2065) and 2080s (2065–2095), respectively, with respect to baseline period (1970–2000). Similarly, the projections of minimum temperature show an increase of 1.1, 2.4 and 3.5 °C, respectively. This increasing trend is statistically significant (Mann-Kendall trend test). The annual rainfall projections for the same periods indicate a general decrease in rainfall of about 2–7, 1–4 and 4–9 %, respectively. However, significant exceptions are noticed over some pockets of western hilly areas and high rainfall areas where increases in rainfall are seen. There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season. Such an approach of using climate models may maximize the utility of high-resolution climate change information for impact-adaptation-vulnerability assessments.