An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology

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• 作者：Rong Yu ; Mark D. Schwartz ; Alison Donnelly…
• 关键词：Intensive observations ; Phenological progression model ; Canopy development ; Autumn senescence ; Accumulated degree ; days ; Day length
• 刊名：International Journal of Biometeorology
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：March 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：60
• 期：3
• 页码：335-349
• 全文大小：943 KB
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• 作者单位：Rong Yu (1) (2)
  Mark D. Schwartz (1)
  Alison Donnelly (1)
  Liang Liang (3)
  
  1. Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, 53211, USA
  2. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, Mesa, AZ, 85212, USA
  3. Department of Geography, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, 40506, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Life Sciences
  Animal Physiology
  Plant Physiology
  Environmental Medicine/Environmental Psychology
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-1254

文摘

It is important to accurately determine the response of spring and autumn phenology to climate change in forest ecosystems, as phenological variations affect carbon balance, forest productivity, and biodiversity. We observed phenology intensively throughout spring and autumn in a temperate deciduous woodlot at Milwaukee, WI, USA, during 2007–2012. Twenty-four phenophase levels in spring and eight in autumn were recorded for 106 trees, including white ash, basswood, white oak, boxelder, red oak, and hophornbeam. Our phenological progression models revealed that accumulated degree-days and day length explained 87.9–93.4 % of the variation in spring canopy development and 75.8–89.1 % of the variation in autumn senescence. In addition, the timing of community-level spring and autumn phenophases and the length of the growing season from 1871 to 2012 were reconstructed with the models developed. All simulated spring phenophases significantly advanced at a rate from 0.24 to 0.48 days/decade (p ≤ 0.001) during the 1871–2012 period and from 1.58 to 2.00 days/decade (p < 0.02) during the 1970–2012 period; two simulated autumn phenophases were significantly delayed at a rate of 0.37 (mid-leaf coloration) and 0.50 (full-leaf coloration) days/decade (p < 0.01) during the 1970–2012 period. Consequently, the simulated growing season lengthened at a rate of 0.45 and 2.50 days/decade (p < =0.001), respectively, during the two periods. Our results further showed the variability of responses to climate between early and late spring phenophases, as well as between leaf coloration and leaf fall, and suggested accelerating simulated ecosystem responses to climate warming over the last four decades in comparison to the past 142 years.