Comparison of selected methods of analysis for reconstructed fields of precipitation in climate scenarios over Poland

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• 作者：Krystyna Konca-Kedzierska
• 刊名：Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：127
• 期：1-2
• 页码：187-195
• 全文大小：1366KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Climatology; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution;
• 出版者：Springer Vienna
• ISSN：1434-4483
• 卷排序：127

文摘

Obtaining information about future climate change is essential to the development of adaptation strategies, but no less a significant problem than gathering the data is assessing its credibility. The task of assessing the credibility of scenarios is solved by evaluating climate models in the referenced period. Methods of comparing meteorological fields in the grid points often lead to an overestimation of the error for precipitation. The way precipitation effects the environment—a much wider concern than just where the precipitation occurs—allows for the assumption of some tolerance in the verification of its location. The main objective of this study is to find a way to evaluate climate scenarios without taking into account the details of location and intensity of precipitation. One of the methods for a less restrictive examination of compatibility of precipitation fields is to compare their properties in the neighborhood of the point rather than the value at the point. Maps of climate indices and probabilities of exceeding some threshold are evaluated. The second method is a cluster approach, and each field of precipitation is replaced by a set of clusters found in the phase space {(lon,lat,cl)}, where cl is the class of precipitation. Instead of comparing the fields of precipitation, it deals with the set of exemplars of the clusters. Further analysis concerns the spatial distribution of exemplars within a selected class of precipitation. This generalized description allows for comparison between precipitation fields with tolerance in respect to exact location and intensity. Comparison with such descriptions allows one to assess whether two given fields have a similar property in a very general sense.