Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO

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• 作者：Hye-In Jeong ; Joong-Bae Ahn ; June-Yi Lee ; Andrea Alessandri…
• 关键词：El Ni?o and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ; Climate regime shift ; Decadal variability ; Seasonal predictability and prediction ; Multi ; model ensemble (MME) ; Teleconnection
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：February 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：44
• 期：3-4
• 页码：1073-1091
• 全文大小：21,581 KB
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• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December–January–February during the period of 1972-005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972-988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989-005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods.