Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on precipitation and surface air temperature in South America

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Mariano S. Alvarez ; C. S. Vera ; G. N. Kiladis ; B. Liebmann
• 关键词：Madden–Julian oscillation ; South America ; Precipitation ; Surface air temperature ; Impacts
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：46
• 期：1-2
• 页码：245-262
• 全文大小：16,797 KB
• 参考文献：Alvarez MS, Vera CS, Kiladis GN, Liebmann B (2014) Intraseasonal variability in South America during the cold season. Clim Dyn 42(11–12):3253–3269. doi:10.​1007/​s00382-013-1872-z
  Barlow M, Salstein D (2006) Summertime influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on daily rainfall over Mexico and Central America. Geophys Res Lett 33:L21708. doi:10.​1029/​2006GL027738 CrossRef
  Barret BS, Carrasco JF, Testino AP (2012) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) modulation of atmospheric circulation and Chilean winter precipitation. J Clim 25(5):1678–1688CrossRef
  Berbery EH, Nogues-Paegle J (1993) Intraseasonal interactions between the tropics and extratropics in the Southern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 50(13):1950–1965CrossRef
  Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Liebmann B (2004) The South Atlantic convergence zone: intensity, form, persistence, relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity and extreme rainfall. J Clim 17:88–108CrossRef
  Cerne B, Vera C (2011) Influence of the intraseasonal variability on heat waves in subtropical South America. Clim Dyn 36:2265–2277CrossRef
  Cerne B, Vera CS, Liebmann B (2007) The nature of a heat wave in eastern Argentina occurring during SALLJEX. Mon Weather Rev 135:1165–1174CrossRef
  De Souza EB, Ambrizzi T (2006) Modulation of the intraseasonal rainfall over tropical Brazil by the Madden–Julian oscillation. Int J Clim 26(13):1759–1776CrossRef
  Donald A, Meinke H, Power B, deMaia AHN, Wheeler MC, White N, Stone RC, Ribbe J (2006) Near-global impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation on rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 33:L09704. doi:10.​1029/​2005GL025155 CrossRef
  Gonzalez PLM, Vera CS (2013) Summer precipitation variability over South America on long and short intraseasonal timescales. Clim Dyn. doi:10.​1007/​s00382-013-2023-2
  Jones C, Waliser DE, Lau KM, Stern W (2004) Global occurrences of extreme precipitation events and the Madden–Julian oscillation: observations and predictability. J Clim 17:4575–4589CrossRef
  Jones C, Gottschalck J, Carvalho LMV, Higgins WR (2011) Influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on forecasts of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States. Mon Weather Rev 139:332–350CrossRef
  Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–471CrossRef
  Kidson JW (1999) Principal modes of Southern Hemisphere low-frequency variability obtained from NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. J Clim 12(9):2808–2830CrossRef
  Kiladis GN, Mo KC (1998) Interannual and intraseasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere. In: Karoly DJ, Vincent DG (eds) Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, pp 307–336
  Kiladis GN, Dias J, Straub KH, Wheeler MC, Tulich SN, Kikuchi K, Weickmann KM, Ventrice MJ (2014) A comparison of OLR and circulation-based indices for tracking the MJO. Mon Weather Rev 142:1697–1715CrossRef
  Lau WKM, Waliser DE (2012) Intraseasonal variability of the atmosphere–ocean climate system, 2nd edn. Springer, Heidelberg, p 613CrossRef
  Liebmann B, Allured D (2005) Daily precipitation grids for South America. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86(11):1567–1570CrossRef
  Liebmann B, Kiladis GN, Marengo JA, Ambrizzi T, Glick JD (1999) Submonthly convective variability over South America and the South Atlantic convergence zone. J Clim 12:1877–1891CrossRef
  Liebmann B, Kiladis GN, Vera CS, Saulo AC, Carvalho LMV (2004) Subseasonal variations of rainfall in South America in the vicinity of the low-level jet east of the andes and comparison to those in the South Atlantic convergence zone. J Clim 17(19):3829–3842CrossRef
  Maharaj EA, Wheeler MC (2005) Forecasting an index of the Madden-oscillation. Int J Clim 25:1611–1618CrossRef
  Martin ER, Schumacher C (2011) Modulation of Caribbean precipitation by the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 24:813–824CrossRef
  Mo KC, Higgins RW (1998) The Pacific-South American modes and tropical convection during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 126(6):1581–1596CrossRef
  Muza MN, Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Liebmann B (2009) Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme dry and wet events over southeastern South America and the subtropical Atlantic during austral summer. J Clim 22(7):1682–1699CrossRef
  Naumann G, Vargas WM (2010) Joint diagnostic of the surface air temperature in southern South America and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Weather Forecast 25:1275–1280. doi:10.​1175/​2010WAF2222418.​1 CrossRef
  Nogues-Paegle J, Mo KC (1997) Alternating wet and dry conditions over South America during summer. Mon Weather Rev 125(2):279–291CrossRef
  Paegle JN, Byerle LA, Mo KC (2000) Intraseasonal modulation of South American summer precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 128:837–850CrossRef
  Pai DS, Bhate J, Sreejith OP, Hatwar HR (2009) Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Clim Dyn. doi:10.​1007/​s00382-009-0634-4
  Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on East African rainfall. I: intraseasonal variability and regional dependency. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132(621):2521–2539CrossRef
  Revell MJ, Kidson JW, Kiladis GN (2001) Interpreting low-frequency modes of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric variability as the rotational response to divergent forcing. Mon Weather Rev 129(9):2416–2425CrossRef
  Straub KH (2013) MJO initiation in the realtime multivariate MJO index. J Clim 26:1130–1151CrossRef
  Vera C et al (2006) Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems. J Clim 19:4977–5000CrossRef
  Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932CrossRef
  Wheeler MC, Hendon HH, Cleland S, Meinke H, Donald A (2009) Impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation on Australian rainfall and circulation. J Clim 22:1482–1498CrossRef
  Zhang L, Wang B, Zeng Q (2009) Impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation on summer rainfall in southeast China. J Clim. doi:10.​1175/​2008JCLI1959.​1
  Zhou Y, Thompson KR, Lu Y (2011) Mapping the relationship between Northern Hemisphere winter surface air temperature and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 139(8):2439–2454CrossRef
  Zhou S, L’Heureux M, Weaver S, Kumar A (2012) A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the continental United States. Clim Dyn 38:1459–1471CrossRef
  
• 作者单位：Mariano S. Alvarez (1)
  C. S. Vera (1)
  G. N. Kiladis (2)
  B. Liebmann (2) (3)
  
  1. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), DCAO/FCEN, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  2. Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA
  3. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

The regional influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on South America is described. Maps of probability of weekly-averaged rainfall exceeding the upper tercile were computed for all seasons and related statistically with the phase of the MJO as characterized by the Wheeler–Hendon real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index and with the OLR MJO Index. The accompanying surface air temperature and circulation anomalies were also calculated. The influence of the MJO on regional scales along with their marked seasonal variations was documented. During December–February when the South American monsoon system is active, chances of enhanced rainfall are observed in southeastern South America (SESA) region mainly during RMM phases 3 and 4, accompanied by cold anomalies in the extratropics, while enhanced rainfall in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) region is observed in phases 8 and 1. The SESA (SACZ) signal is characterized by upper-level convergence (divergence) over tropical South America and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly near the southern tip of the continent. Impacts during March–May are similar, but attenuated in the extratropics. Conversely, in June–November, reduced rainfall and cold anomalies are observed near the coast of the SACZ region during phases 4 and 5, favored by upper-level convergence over tropical South America and an anticyclonic anomaly over southern South America. In September–November, enhanced rainfall and upper-level divergence are observed in the SACZ region during phases 7 and 8. These signals are generated primarily through the propagation of Rossby wave energy generated in the region of anomalous heating associated with the MJO.