The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will be increased in 40?years

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• 作者：Miwa Araseki (1)
  Yuki Yokooka (2)
  Tomoki Ishikawa (3)
  Katsuhiko Ogasawara (3)
  
• 关键词：System dynamics (SD) ; Radiologic technologist ; Predicted number ; Simulation
• 刊名：Radiological Physics and Technology
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：July 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：6
• 期：2
• 页码：467-473
• 全文大小：452KB
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• 作者单位：Miwa Araseki (1)
  Yuki Yokooka (2)
  Tomoki Ishikawa (3)
  Katsuhiko Ogasawara (3)
  
  1. Department of Radiological Technology, Suttu Municipal Clinic, 72-2 Oshimacho, Suttu-Cho, Hokkaido, 048-0406, Japan
  2. National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Medical Informatics, 4-9-1, Anagawa, Inage-ku, Chiba, 263-8555, Japan
  3. Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, N12W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, 060-0812, Japan
  

文摘

It is essential to predict the long-term supply and demand for the number of radiologic technologists as medical resources. However, it is difficult to predict the number of Japanese radiologic technologists due to complex and intertwining factors. Our purpose in this study was to predict the future number of radiologic technologists using the concept of system dynamics (SD), and to clarify the effects of relevant factors. In order to estimate the number of Japanese radiologic technologists, we constructed a flow diagram using the concept of SD. We simulated the number of radiologic technologists for the following 4 cases: maintaining the status quo, a change in the pass rate for the national examination, a change in the post-graduate employment rate, and a change in the rate of continuing education. The result for the predicted number of radiologic technologists was 50,509 in 20?years, which is 4,394 (9.5?%) more than the present number, and 50,166 in 40?years, which is 4,051 (8.8?%) more than the present number. For the factors influencing the number of technologists, the influence of the pass rate on the national examination and that of the rate for post-graduate employment was larger than that of the rate of continuing education in graduate school. The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will increase until 2033 and decrease until 2042, and it does not change after 2042 in case of maintaining the status quo. Implementing the concept of SD allowed us easily to clarify the factors influencing the predicted number of radiologic technologists.