The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

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• 作者：Martha Bakker (1)
  Shah Jamal Alam (2)
  Jerry van Dijk (3)
  Mark Rounsevell (2)
  Teun Spek (4)
  Adri van den Brink (5)
  
  1. Land Use Planning Group ; Wageningen University ; Droevendaalsesteeg 3 ; 6708 PB ; Wageningen ; The Netherlandss
  2. School of GeoSciences ; University of Edinburgh ; Drummond Street ; Edinburgh ; EH8 9XP ; UK
  3. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development ; Utrecht University ; Heidelberglaan 2 ; 3584 CS ; Utrecht ; The Netherlands
  4. Province of Gelderland ; Markt 11 ; 6811 CG ; Arnhem ; The Netherlands
  5. Landscape Architecture Group and Land Use Planning Group ; Wageningen University ; Droevendaalsesteeg 3 ; 6708 PB ; Wageningen ; The Netherlands
  
• 关键词：Ecosystem restoration ; Agent ; based model ; Climate change ; Land use change ; Land market ; Land use planning
• 刊名：Landscape Ecology
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：May 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：30
• 期：5
• 页码：791-804
• 全文大小：1,278 KB
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• 刊物类别：Biomedical and Life Sciences
• 刊物主题：Life Sciences
  Landscape Ecology
  Plant Ecology
  Forestry Management
  Forestry
  Ecology
  Plant Sciences
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1572-9761

文摘

Context Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers to the abolition of an intermediary organization that organizes land trades with the support of a national land bank. Objective In this paper we evaluate the effects of these factors on future land acquisition for the NEN. Methods We applied an agent-based model of the land market based on sales and purchases between farmers and nature-conservation organizations (establishing the NEN) within a case study area. Results Our results demonstrate that future land acquisitions for the NEN are constrained by strong competition for land from farmers due to improved economic prospects for farming. Effects of climate change are that fewer parcels will be sold from farmers to nature-conservation organizations in a dry scenario as compared to a wet scenario. An important constraint for land acquisitions is the low willingness to pay (WTP) for land by nature-conservation organizations. We demonstrate that higher WTP increases land purchases considerably. However, the spatial pattern of land acquisition is fragmented, which may undermine its effectiveness from a restoration perspective. Conclusions The combination of these processes leads to land acquisitions for the NEN that do not meet the initially-stated policy objectives by far. In addition, the abolition of a land-trade organization supported by a land bank leads to more fragmented pattern of nature reserves.