Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948-012

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• 作者：Zongting Gao (1) (2)
  Zeng-Zhen Hu (3)
  Bhaskar Jha (3) (4)
  Song Yang (5)
  Jieshun Zhu (6)
  Baizhu Shen (1) (2)
  Renjian Zhang (7)
  
• 关键词：Northeast China ; Precipitation and surface air temperature ; Climate variability ; Predictability ; ENSO and Atlantic SST ; Decadal shift
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：August 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：43
• 期：3-4
• 页码：787-804
• 全文大小：6,489 KB
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• 作者单位：Zongting Gao (1) (2)
  Zeng-Zhen Hu (3)
  Bhaskar Jha (3) (4)
  Song Yang (5)
  Jieshun Zhu (6)
  Baizhu Shen (1) (2)
  Renjian Zhang (7)
  
  1. Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun, 130062, China
  2. Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation and East Asian Monsoon, Changchun, 130062, China
  3. Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
  4. Innovim, LLC, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  5. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangdong, 510275, China
  6. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
  7. RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

In this work, authors examine the variabilities of precipitation and surface air temperature (T2m) in Northeast China during 1948-012, and their global connection, as well as the predictability. It is noted that both the precipitation and T2m variations in Northeast China are dominated by interannual and higher frequency variations. However, on interdecadal time scales, T2m is shifted significantly from below normal to above normal around 1987/1988. Statistically, the seasonal mean precipitation and T2m are largely driven by local internal atmospheric variability rather than remote forcing. For the precipitation variation, circulation anomalies in the low latitudes play a more important role in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. For T2m variations, the associated sea surface pressure (SLP) and 850-hPa wind (uv850) anomalies are similar for all seasons in high latitudes with significantly negative correlations for SLP and westerly wind anomaly for uv850, suggesting that a strong zonal circulation in the high latitudes favors warming in Northeast China. The predictability of precipitation and T2m in Northeast China is assessed by using the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project type experiments which are forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and time-evolving greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Results suggest that T2m has slightly higher predictability than precipitation in Northeast China. To some extent, the model simulates the interdecadal shift of T2m around 1987/1988, implying a possible connection between SST (and/or GHG forcing) and surface air temperature variation in Northeast China on interdecadal time scales. Nevertheless, the precipitation and T2m variations are mainly determined by the unpredictable components which are caused by the atmospheric internal dynamic processes, suggesting low predictability for the climate variation in Northeast China.