Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：J. P. G. van Leuken ; A. N. Swart ; P. Droogers ; A. van Pul ; D. Heederik…
• 关键词：Coxiella burnetii ; Q fever ; Temperature ; Global radiation ; Wind ; Precipitation ; Atmospheric dispersion modelling
• 刊名：Aerobiologia
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：32
• 期：4
• 页码：607-617
• 全文大小：787 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Environment
  Atmospheric Protection, Air Quality Control and Air Pollution
  Plant Pathology
  Allergology
  Pneumology and Respiratory System
  Environmental Biotechnology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-3025
• 卷排序：32

文摘

The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981–2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016–2045 and 2036–2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981–2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from −67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.