Land-use and land-cover change in Western Ghats of India

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• 作者：Manish P. Kale ; Manoj Chavan ; Satish Pardeshi…
• 刊名：Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：July 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：188
• 期：7
• 全文大小：3,640 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Monitoring, Environmental Analysis and Environmental Ecotoxicology
  Ecology
  Atmospheric Protection, Air Quality Control and Air Pollution
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-2959
• 卷排序：188

文摘

The Western Ghats (WG) of India, one of the hottest biodiversity hotspots in the world, has witnessed major land-use and land-cover (LULC) change in recent times. The present research was aimed at studying the patterns of LULC change in WG during 1985–1995–2005, understanding the major drivers that caused such change, and projecting the future (2025) spatial distribution of forest using coupled logistic regression and Markov model. The International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) classification scheme was mainly followed in LULC characterization and change analysis. The single-step Markov model was used to project the forest demand. The spatial allocation of such forest demand was based on the predicted probabilities derived through logistic regression model. The R statistical package was used to set the allocation rules. The projection model was selected based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The actual and projected areas of forest in 2005 were compared before making projection for 2025. It was observed that forest degradation has reduced from 1985–1995 to 1995–2005. The study obtained important insights about the drivers and their impacts on LULC simulations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt where projection of future state of forest in entire WG is made based on decadal LULC and socio-economic datasets at the Taluka (sub-district) level.KeywordsWestern GhatsForestLand-use land-coverSimulationR