Eurasian snow cover variability and links to winter climate in the CMIP5 models

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• 作者：Jason C. Furtado ; Judah L. Cohen ; Amy H. Butler ; Emily E. Riddle…
• 关键词：Arctic Oscillation ; Large ; scale extratropical climate variability ; Stratosphere–troposphere coupling ; Eurasian snow cover
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：November 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：45
• 期：9-10
• 页码：2591-2605
• 全文大小：3,821 KB
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• 作者单位：Jason C. Furtado (1)
  Judah L. Cohen (1)
  Amy H. Butler (2)
  Emily E. Riddle (3) (4)
  Arun Kumar (3)
  
  1. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., 131 Hartwell Ave., Lexington, MA, 02421, USA
  2. Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
  3. Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, College Park, MD, USA
  4. INNOVIM, LLC, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

Observational studies and modeling experiments illustrate that variability in October Eurasian snow cover extent impacts boreal wintertime conditions over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) through a dynamical pathway involving the stratosphere and changes in the surface-based Arctic Oscillation (AO). In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive study of the Eurasian snow–AO relationship in twenty coupled climate models run under pre-industrial conditions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our analyses indicate that the coupled climate models, individually and collectively, do not capture well the observed snow–AO relationship. The models lack a robust lagged response between October Eurasian snow cover and several NH wintertime variables (e.g., vertically propagating waves and geopotential heights). Additionally, the CMIP5 models do not simulate the observed spatial distribution and statistics of boreal fall snow cover across the NH including Eurasia. However, when analyzing individual 40-year time slices of the models, there are periods of time in select models when the observed snow–AO relationship emerges. This finding suggests that internal variability may play a significant role in the observed relationship. Further analysis demonstrates that the models poorly capture the downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies into the troposphere, a key facet of NH wintertime climate variability irrespective of the influence of Eurasian snow cover. A weak downward propagation signal may be related to several factors including too few stratospheric vortex disruptions and weaker-than-observed tropospheric wave driving. The analyses presented can be used as a roadmap for model evaluations in future studies involving NH wintertime climate variability, including those considering future climate change.