Spatial reconstruction of rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data

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• 作者：Francesca Bruno (1)
  Daniela Cocchi (1)
  Fedele Greco (1)
  Elena Scardovi (1)
  
• 关键词：Calibration ; Hierarchical Bayesian Model ; Spatial prediction ; Zero ; inflated model ; Gamma distribution ; Lognormal distribution
• 刊名：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：July 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：28
• 期：5
• 页码：1235-1245
• 全文大小：
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• 作者单位：Francesca Bruno (1)
  Daniela Cocchi (1)
  Fedele Greco (1)
  Elena Scardovi (1)
  
  1. Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
  
• ISSN：1436-3259

文摘

Rainfall is a phenomenon difficult to model and predict, for the strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity and the presence of many zero values. We deal with hourly rainfall data provided by rain gauges, sparsely distributed on the ground, and radar data available on a fine grid of pixels. Radar data overcome the problem of sparseness of the rain gauge network, but are not reliable for the assessment of rain amounts. In this work we investigate how to calibrate radar measurements via rain gauge data and make spatial predictions for hourly rainfall, by means of Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We use zero-inflated distributions for taking zero-measurements into account. Several models are compared both in terms of data fitting and predictive performances on a set of validation sites. Finally, rainfall fields are reconstructed and standard error estimates at each prediction site are shown via easy-to-read spatial maps.