Measuring the impacts of weather variability on home-based trip chaining behaviour: a focus on spatial heterogeneity

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• 作者：Chengxi Liu ; Yusak O. Susilo ; Anders Karlström
• 刊名：Transportation
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：September 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：43
• 期：5
• 页码：843-867
• 全文大小：671 KB
• 刊物类别：Business and Economics
• 刊物主题：Economics
  Regional Science
  Economic Geography
  Engineering Economics, Organization, Logistics and Marketing
  Technology Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1572-9435
• 卷排序：43

文摘

Using the 2011 Swedish national travel survey data, this paper explores the influence of weather characteristics on individuals’ home-based trip chaining complexity. A series of panel mixed ordered Probit models are estimated to examine the influence of individual/household social demographics, land use characteristics, and weather characteristics on individuals’ home-based trip chaining complexity. A thermal index, the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), is used in this study instead of using directly measured weather variables in order to better approximate the effects of the thermal environment. The effects of UTCI are segmented into different seasons to account for the seasonal difference of UTCI effects. Moreover, a spatial expansion method is applied to allow the impacts of UTCI to vary across geographical locations, as individuals in different regions have different weather/climate adaptions. The effects of weather are examined in subsistence, routine, and discretionary trip chains. The results reveal that the ‘ground covered with snow’ condition is the most influential factor on the number of trips chained per trip chain among all other weather factors. The variation of UTCI significantly influences trip chaining complexity in autumn but not in spring and winter. The routine trip chains are found to be most elastic towards the variation of UTCI. The marginal effects of UTCI on the expected number of trips per routine trip chain have considerable spatial variations, while these spatial trends of UTCI effects are found to be not consistent over seasons.KeywordsTrip chaining complexityWeather impactThermal indexSpatial heterogeneity